Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C9 0xc96a…702c other 242 markets active 2d ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$693 (+2%) realized +$286 · open +$407
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate64%95W / 53L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$4,545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$94
14 days−$115
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$349
politics 32% +$278
world 14% +$109
weather 11% +$100
economics 1% +$40
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
sports 0% −$6
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.1% -24.1% 73% 33% -61.7%
≤30d 24 -15.1% -23.2% 75% 33% -9.8%
≤90d 54 -5.9% -14.8% 76% 35% -10.5%
all 148 -0.6% -10.0% 64% 28% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 28% -7.8%
10% -18.6% 12% -16.6%
15% -26.5% 7% -24.7%
20% -33.7% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$4,545
Realized+$286
Unrealized+$407
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses95 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions94
Markets (closed)148 / 242
History coverage333d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 94 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? No 85¢ 100¢ $1,973 $2,320 +$347 (+18%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 73¢ 88¢ $140 $168 +$28 (+20%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 90¢ 92¢ $130 $133 +$3 (+2%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $130 $131 +$1 (+1%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? No 91¢ 99¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 85¢ 88¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $101 $104 +$3 (+3%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 86¢ 94¢ $67 $73 +$6 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+23%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 80¢ 95¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+19%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 92¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ 76¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 79¢ 76¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
X banned in any European country by December 31? No 70¢ 68¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by July 27? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
US x China Military clash before 2027? No 94¢ 92¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? No 87¢ 78¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? No 73¢ 72¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$15 -76%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will Paraguay vs. Nicaragua end in a draw? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will a hurricane form by May 31? Jun 02 $3,213 +$97 +3%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +20%
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $16 +$3 +19%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $12 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 13 $15 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 10 $6 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $2 $0 +12%
Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30? May 01 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $10 $0 +3%
Will UK strike Iran by April 30? May 01 $10 +$1 +7%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 01 $30 +$2 +6%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 26 $10 +$2 +16%
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by May 31? Apr 20 $211 +$3 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Apr 18 $300 +$3 +1%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 20 Apr 17 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 17 $50 −$4 -8%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 16 $1,085 −$99 -9%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $591 +$35 +6%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026? Apr 14 $1 $0 +22%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 7, 2026? Apr 13 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? Apr 13 $1 $0 +49%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $70 −$14 -20%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $12 +$2 +19%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Apr 04 $5 $0 +10%
North Korea missile test/launch by April 15? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Les Wexner arrested by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $10 43h
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $10 43h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $100 43h
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 43h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $90 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $10 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $10 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $5 43h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $90 2d
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $10 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $20 2d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $100 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? BUY No 91¢ $100 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $20 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 2d
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $4 4d
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $73 4d
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? BUY No 75¢ $8 4d
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $4 4d
X banned in any European country by December 31? BUY No 70¢ $21 4d
US x China Military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $19 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $13 4d
Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? BUY No 85¢ $20 4d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 4d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 4d
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $5 4d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $5 4d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,544.77 · official $4,544.94 (match) · 568 history records