Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C9
0xc969…0377
weather · 945 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$448 -26%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$447 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$447
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses289 / 846
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1135 / 945
History coverage22d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day151.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 6 History 1135 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$606
7 days−$544
14 days−$420
30 days−$446
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Yes 24¢ 39¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+66%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on April 20? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 3? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on May 11? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 8? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 29? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 11? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 31? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 15? No 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 6? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on April 2 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 3? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on May 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 15? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 8? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 29 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -118%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 15? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 6? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on April 20? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on April 19? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on May 2? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 47°F or below on Apri Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 27 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or higher on April 19 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 18? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 19? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on April 25? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 22? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 8? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -296%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on April Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 58-59°F on Apri Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on April 24? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on May 14? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 17 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 16? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 12 $1 −$2 -386%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 28? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 25? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 21? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 9? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 28? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 78% +$218
crypto 22% −$48
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 17m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? SELL Yes 63¢ $3 21m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 37m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 43m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 51m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 59m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? SELL Yes 78¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 42¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 51¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 648 -56.2% -60.4% 14% 11% -49.7%
≤30d 1135 -26.1% -33.1% 25% 22% -30.3%
≤90d 1135 -26.1% -33.1% 25% 22% -30.3%
all 1135 -26.1% -33.1% 25% 22% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover151.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.1% 22% -30.3%
10% ← realistic here -39.5% 20% -36.9%
15% -45.4% 18% -43.0%
20% -50.7% 16% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.86 · official $6.86 (match) · 3500 history records