Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc969…3213 crypto 96 markets active 3d ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$485 (-25%) realized −$338 · open −$147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%48W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$68
14 days−$290
30 days−$268
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$499
crypto 45% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -2.1% -11.4% 55% 47% -16.5%
≤30d 79 -3.0% -12.2% 56% 47% -28.2%
≤90d 88 -12.7% -21.0% 50% 42% -34.8%
all 95 -6.7% -15.6% 51% 42% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 42% -32.0%
10% -23.7% 35% -38.5%
15% -31.1% 32% -44.5%
20% -37.8% 25% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$338
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses48 / 47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage147d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 77¢ 0¢ $147 $0 −$147 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$11 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$12 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$11 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$12 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$7 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$7 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$20 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.29 · official $0.29 (match) · 266 history records