Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc965…6673 other 229 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$62 (-0%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 218L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$22
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$33
sports 24% −$18
politics 8% −$7
economics 8% −$6
crypto 6% +$1
culture 6% −$5
world 4% −$4
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 228 -0.1% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 218
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage127d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $533 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $386 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $550 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $556 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $317 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $252 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $168 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $141 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $275 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $125 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $134 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $323 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $175 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $473 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $513 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $218 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $441 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $441 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $294 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $143 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $446 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $63 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $112 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $300 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $364 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $228 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $207 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $66 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 1h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 3h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 5h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 6h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 8h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 10h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 11h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 25h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 30h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 32h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $58 39h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $58 41h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 42h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 43h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 45h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 46h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.09 · official $57.09 (match) · 1259 history records