Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:11:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C9 0xc965…e751 other 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$784 (+18%) realized +$939 · open −$155
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate67%33W / 16L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$147
14 days+$301
30 days+$269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$123
world 25% +$284
finance 11% +$150
sports 10% +$17
economics 6% −$111
culture 4% −$29
politics 3% −$6
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +91.0% +72.8% 88% 75% +44.3%
≤30d 37 +35.0% +22.1% 73% 68% +13.6%
≤90d 43 +31.0% +18.5% 67% 63% +11.8%
all 49 +29.0% +16.7% 67% 63% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.7% 63% +12.1%
10% +5.5% 55% +1.4%
15% -4.7% 41% -8.4%
20% -14.0% 29% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +55% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$24 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$1,402
Realized+$939
Unrealized−$155
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses33 / 16
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions24
Markets (closed)49 / 82
History coverage113d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 54¢ 56¢ $296 $311 +$15 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 36¢ 42¢ $198 $228 +$30 (+15%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 16¢ $30 $119 +$89 (+295%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 37¢ 21¢ $183 $104 −$79 (-43%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $99 $103 +$4 (+4%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $112 $78 −$35 (-31%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $85 $69 −$15 (-18%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $82 $62 −$20 (-24%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $65 $60 −$5 (-8%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 50¢ 44¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-13%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 40¢ 43¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+26%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $21 +$2 (+11%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $34 $18 −$17 (-49%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $42 $17 −$24 (-59%)
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 40¢ 22¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-45%)
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes $54 $16 −$37 (-69%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $11 −$3 (-20%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $40 $11 −$29 (-72%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $6 +$2 (+69%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $4 −$8 (-62%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Yes 53¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 AND Will United States wi Jun 26 $15 +$1 +10%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 25 $104 +$34 +33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa vs. Korea Republi Jun 25 $5 +$6 +115%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will B Jun 25 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $29 +$13 +46%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $30 −$6 -20%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Jun 23 $15 +$57 +372%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $30 +$20 +68%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $46 +$6 +13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$10 +101%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $65 +$18 +28%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $6 +$17 +291%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $48 +$51 +107%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$50 +100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $101 +$34 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$124 +249%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $16 +$4 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 −$71 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $21 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $10 +$16 +153%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$11 +31%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $14 +$6 +42%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 16 $72 +$27 +37%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $149 −$89 -60%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +47%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 16 $6 +$6 +98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 16 $43 +$6 +15%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $42 −$33 -78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $55 +$25 +45%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $34 +$10 +30%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 12 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $94 +$3 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 09 $35 −$35 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 01 $20 +$7 +32%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Verstappen? Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Who will finish higher: Hamilton or Russell? Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Hadjar? Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Russell? Apr 16 $20 $0 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Apr 01 $198 +$30 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 21 $42 +$15 +36%
Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026? Mar 18 $35 +$23 +65%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by March 13? Mar 16 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-03-10? Mar 11 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 09 $16 +$10 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 15¢ $3 11m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 15¢ $12 12m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 62¢ $99 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 61¢ $10 3h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 17¢ $7 12h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 AND Will United States win on 2026- BUY 18¢ $15 12h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 AND Will United States wi SELL 50¢ $16 12h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 1.5 AND Will United States wi BUY 44¢ $15 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $13 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 21h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 97¢ $42 22h
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 97¢ $16 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 57¢ $57 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $60 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $99 24h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $30 26h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 34¢ $10 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa vs. Korea Republi SELL 43¢ $11 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa vs. Korea Republi BUY 19¢ $5 35h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 37h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 90¢ $4 37h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 37h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $10 37h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 38h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 73¢ $18 38h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,401.99 · official $1,411.80 (match) · 599 history records