Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc961…ebd6 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$117 (-6%) realized −$104 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$24
sports 9% −$16
other 7% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -11.6% -20.0% 48% 42% -17.2%
≤30d 31 -11.6% -20.0% 48% 42% -17.2%
≤90d 31 -11.6% -20.0% 48% 42% -17.2%
all 31 -11.6% -20.0% 48% 42% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 42% -17.2%
10% -27.6% 39% -25.2%
15% -34.6% 35% -32.4%
20% -41.0% 29% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$40 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$104
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage4d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 26¢ $31 $18 −$13 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $36 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$62 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$33 +64%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$17 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$23 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$9 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$32 +122%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $117 +$42 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $93 +$64 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $129 −$114 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$109 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $21 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 43¢ $45 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $47 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $36 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 4h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $83 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $51 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $61 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $16 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $114 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.85 · official $21.00 · 70 history records