Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C9 0xc959…c37f sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$407 (-10%) realized −$425 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$292
14 days−$292
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$77
other 12% −$196
politics 8% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -23.4% -30.7% 32% 32% -18.4%
≤30d 22 -23.4% -30.7% 32% 32% -18.4%
≤90d 22 -23.4% -30.7% 32% 32% -18.4%
all 24 -25.0% -32.1% 29% 29% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 29% -21.3%
10% -38.6% 29% -28.8%
15% -44.6% 21% -35.7%
20% -50.0% 17% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$70 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized−$425
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage597d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $60 $80 +$20 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $71 −$70 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $603 +$137 +23%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$137 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $103 −$53 -52%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -9%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $91 −$90 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $132 −$130 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $734 +$166 +23%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $111 −$24 -22%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $71 −$34 -47%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 +$110 +216%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $705 −$300 -42%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$68 +134%
Will a Democrat win Michigan Presidential Election? Nov 06 $159 −$134 -84%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 30 $159 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $61 48m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $71 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $603 18h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $52 26h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Under 43¢ $47 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $19 27h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $202 27h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $91 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 37h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $51 37h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $81 43h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $102 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $502 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Over 21¢ $38 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $212 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 66¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 41¢ $72 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $101 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $71 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $302 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.28 · official $178.28 (match) · 49 history records