Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:41:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc957…4187 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$55 (-3%) realized +$1,176 · open −$1,231
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$1,157
sports 11% −$75
crypto 10% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-59.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -55.7% -59.9% 20% 20% -39.4%
≤30d 5 -55.7% -59.9% 20% 20% -39.4%
≤90d 5 -55.7% -59.9% 20% 20% -39.4%
all 5 -55.7% -59.9% 20% 20% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.9% 20% -39.4%
10% -63.8% 20% -45.2%
15% -67.3% 20% -50.5%
20% -70.5% 20% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$30 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$378
Realized+$1,176
Unrealized−$1,231
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 10¢ $900 $235 −$665 (-74%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $160 $85 −$75 (-47%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 22¢ 2¢ $550 $59 −$491 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$63 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.49 · official $518.25 · 21 history records