Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C9 0xc955…edb7 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$388 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$388
7 days+$388
14 days+$388
30 days+$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +34.3% +21.5% 56% 52% +16.1%
≤30d 25 +34.3% +21.5% 56% 52% +16.1%
≤90d 25 +34.3% +21.5% 56% 52% +16.1%
all 25 +34.3% +21.5% 56% 52% +16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.5% 52% +16.1%
10% ← realistic here +9.9% 48% +5.0%
15% -0.7% 32% -5.1%
20% -10.4% 32% -14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$42 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$388
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $30 $2 −$28 (-94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $138 −$32 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$97 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$160 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $34 +$69 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$173 +653%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $104 +$126 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$62 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $56 −$53 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$47 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $129 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $37 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $200 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $103 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $265 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $230 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.79 · official $5.38 · 58 history records