Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc955…2eeb crypto 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%86W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$19
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$8
politics 12% +$4
finance 4% +$1
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -2.1% -11.4% 95% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 89 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 89 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 0% -10.0%
all 89 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses86 / 3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)89 / 96
History coverage14d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $50 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 4d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $15 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.58 · official $140.58 (match) · 185 history records