Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:57:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc955…b1e9 tech 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 582d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,985 (+18%) realized +$4,965 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$950per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3,195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2,256
14 days+$2,256
30 days+$2,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$9
other 29% +$2,215
politics 16% +$269
tech 7% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +59.8% +44.5% 100% 100% +44.5%
≤30d 1 +59.8% +44.5% 100% 100% +44.5%
≤90d 1 +59.8% +44.5% 100% 100% +44.5%
all 12 -8.3% -17.0% 50% 25% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 25% +0.6%
10% -25.0% 17% -9.0%
15% -32.2% 17% -17.8%
20% -38.9% 8% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$540 vs −$141 · ×3.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.83 per $1 lost it wins $3.83
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

582d coverage
Net worth$3,195
Realized+$4,965
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions17
Markets (closed)12 / 29
History coverage582d
Avg bet$950
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? No 50¢ 56¢ $825 $907 +$82 (+10%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 42¢ 42¢ $900 $890 −$10 (-1%)
Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $400 $407 +$7 (+2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 69¢ 68¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 91¢ 93¢ $150 $153 +$3 (+2%)
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? No 35¢ 97¢ $40 $111 +$71 (+179%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? No 7¢ 8¢ $80 $91 +$11 (+14%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? No 14¢ 11¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 96¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? No 5¢ 4¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $30 $18 −$12 (-38%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-63%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $47 $9 −$38 (-81%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $23 $3 −$20 (-87%)
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-85%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 25, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $3,775 +$2,256 +60%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 09 $1,450 +$184 +13%
Trump ends Gaza war in first 100 days? Feb 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 09 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Biden finish his term? Feb 09 $4,177 +$276 +7%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jan 11 $3,557 −$33 -1%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Jan 11 $250 −$8 -3%
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration? Jan 02 $3,190 +$216 +7%
Will Russia use a nuclear weapon in 2024? Jan 02 $2,480 +$67 +3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Dec 21 $540 +$243 +45%
No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Dec 12 $1,680 −$486 -29%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Nov 22 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 69¢ $101 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 69¢ $202 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY No 7¢ $21 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 42¢ $307 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 14¢ $103 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 42¢ $614 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY No 7¢ $62 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY No 5¢ $31 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 97¢ $277 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 97¢ $49 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 95¢ $377 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 59¢ $161 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 93¢ $47 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 94¢ $187 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 50¢ $686 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 47¢ $138 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 93¢ $417 2d
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $102 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 92¢ $923 2d
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $153 3d
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $150 3d
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $151 3d
Will Anthropic have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June BUY Yes 92¢ $40 3d
Will Z.ai have the second best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026 BUY No 95¢ $401 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 47¢ $139 3d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $31 3d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $10 3d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 25, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 3d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $24 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,194.79 · official $3,194.87 (match) · 140 history records