Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:08:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc951…832f crypto 166 markets active 2d ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$384 (+5%) realized +$408 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%58W / 87L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% +$372
other 22% +$134
sports 8% −$130
politics 5% −$4
world 4% −$116
tech 1% +$17
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -30.3% -37.0% 42% 33% -11.6%
≤30d 12 -30.3% -37.0% 42% 33% -11.6%
≤90d 13 -27.8% -34.6% 46% 31% -8.8%
all 145 -17.7% -25.5% 40% 33% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 33% -5.9%
10% -32.6% 29% -14.9%
15% -39.2% 21% -23.1%
20% -45.1% 14% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$20 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$296
Realized+$408
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses58 / 87
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions21
Markets (closed)145 / 166
History coverage588d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $64 $74 +$9 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $72 $59 −$13 (-18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $10 −$1 (-8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $8 +$2 (+31%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $4 +$2 (+125%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$10 -51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$15 +73%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 +$22 +147%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $25 −$24 -93%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $60 +$17 +28%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $21 +$8 +38%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 22 $294 +$9 +3%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $42 −$42 -100%
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? Feb 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on February 2 Feb 24 $25 −$5 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 2 Feb 24 $36 −$2 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 25? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 25? Feb 24 $15 −$14 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 25? Feb 24 $10 −$9 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 25? Feb 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on February 24? Feb 22 $8 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 24? Feb 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Feb 08 $174 −$84 -48%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 06 $156 −$65 -42%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Feb 04 $336 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 29? Jan 29 $5 −$2 -41%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 29? Jan 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 in January? Jan 25 $18 +$4 +21%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 25 $66 −$14 -21%
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jan 24 $440 +$97 +22%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 22? Jan 22 $40 +$90 +222%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 21? Jan 21 $40 +$42 +105%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 21? Jan 20 $42 −$18 -43%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,700 and $3,800 on January 22? Jan 20 $6 −$5 -88%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,600 on January 19? Jan 19 $33 −$31 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,600 on January 20? Jan 19 $29 −$25 -89%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,600 and $3,700 on January 21? Jan 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,700 January 12-18? Jan 18 $39 −$38 -97%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 January 12-18? Jan 17 $29 −$27 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on January 15? Jan 15 $18 −$7 -40%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,500 on January 17? Jan 15 $23 +$3 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,500 and $3,600 on January 16? Jan 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on January 15? Jan 15 $43 −$23 -52%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on January 15? Jan 15 $37 +$32 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on January 14 Jan 14 $38 −$28 -74%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 14? Jan 14 $26 +$21 +79%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on January 14? Jan 14 $43 +$48 +113%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on January 14? Jan 14 $27 −$4 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 14 Jan 14 $15 +$2 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 45h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 45h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $25 45h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $7 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $8 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 24¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $15 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $15 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $15 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over $1 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $25 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $5 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 80¢ $77 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 59¢ $29 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 52¢ $5 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 39¢ $16 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 6d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $17 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $43 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 6d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.07 · official $296.07 (match) · 795 history records