Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc950…0e82 crypto 59 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-3%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%35W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$58
other 5% +$18
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -10.1% -18.7% 60% 53% -12.4%
≤30d 58 -10.1% -18.7% 60% 53% -12.4%
≤90d 58 -10.1% -18.7% 60% 53% -12.4%
all 58 -10.1% -18.7% 60% 53% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 53% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 43% -20.8%
15% -33.6% 29% -28.4%
20% -40.1% 19% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses35 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 92¢ 92¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$8 +22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 +$15 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $71 −$70 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$24 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$21 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$27 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$20 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$13 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$43 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$16 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$12 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $71 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $41 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $31 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.14 · official $18.34 · 143 history records