Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc94e…de62 sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,523 (-25%) realized −$1,522 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%23W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,463
crypto 6% −$47
politics 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -31.6% -38.1% 33% 33% -56.1%
all 47 +5.9% -4.2% 49% 45% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 45% -32.3%
10% -13.4% 45% -38.8%
15% -21.8% 43% -44.7%
20% -29.4% 43% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$146 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$1,522
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses23 / 24
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage229d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 50¢ 50¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 29 $63 −$62 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 20 $144 −$142 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 17 $63 +$66 +105%
Celtics vs. Warriors Feb 20 $570 +$430 +75%
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Feb 18 $241 +$322 +134%
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Feb 08 $244 −$244 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Raptors Feb 05 $28 +$22 +82%
Hawks vs. Grizzlies Jan 21 $346 −$346 -100%
Raptors vs. Pacers Jan 14 $261 −$261 -100%
Nets vs. Wizards Jan 02 $550 −$550 -100%
76ers vs. Mavericks Jan 02 $319 +$261 +82%
76ers vs. Grizzlies Dec 30 $332 −$332 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Dec 25 $221 −$221 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Jazz Dec 25 $99 +$71 +72%
Wizards vs. Hornets Dec 23 $46 −$46 -100%
49ers vs. Colts Dec 22 $238 −$238 -100%
Falcons vs. Cardinals Dec 22 $217 +$163 +75%
Canucks vs. Rangers Dec 16 $396 −$396 -100%
Knicks vs. Magic Dec 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Warriors vs. 76ers Dec 13 $29 +$21 +72%
Pistons vs. Celtics Nov 26 $174 −$174 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Kings Nov 25 $7 +$23 +354%
Magic vs. 76ers Nov 25 $98 −$98 -100%
Pistons vs. Pacers Nov 24 $38 −$38 -100%
Steelers vs. Bears Nov 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Colts vs. Chiefs Nov 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Minnesota vs. Northwestern Nov 23 $128 +$72 +56%
Missouri vs. Oklahoma Nov 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Bills vs. Texans Nov 22 $20 +$50 +245%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 20? Nov 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Warriors vs. Magic Nov 19 $60 +$90 +150%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Nov 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Hornets vs. Raptors Nov 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 16? Nov 17 $300 +$3 +1%
Arizona vs. Cincinnati Nov 16 $46 +$94 +203%
UTEP vs. Missouri State Nov 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Nov 15 $62 +$78 +127%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 14 $150 −$15 -10%
Magic vs. Knicks Nov 14 $14 +$23 +170%
Pacers vs. Jazz Nov 12 $22 +$28 +122%
Capitals vs. Hurricanes Nov 12 $8 +$12 +144%
Celtics vs. 76ers Nov 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Magic Nov 11 $82 +$68 +82%
Patriots vs. Buccaneers Nov 10 $34 +$46 +133%
Bowling vs. Eastern Michigan Nov 09 $28 +$22 +75%
Raiders vs. Broncos Nov 07 $20 +$5 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 6? Nov 06 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 50¢ $55 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $63 24d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 38¢ $144 33d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $63 38d
Celtics vs. Warriors BUY Celtics 57¢ $570 124d
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes BUY Ohio State Buckeyes 43¢ $241 125d
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 53¢ $244 134d
Timberwolves vs. Raptors BUY Timberwolves 55¢ $28 138d
Hawks vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 54¢ $346 152d
Raptors vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 45¢ $261 159d
Nets vs. Wizards BUY Nets 50¢ $550 171d
76ers vs. Mavericks BUY 76ers 55¢ $319 172d
76ers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 51¢ $332 174d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Timberwolves 47¢ $221 179d
Grizzlies vs. Jazz BUY Grizzlies 58¢ $99 181d
Wizards vs. Hornets BUY Wizards 34¢ $46 181d
49ers vs. Colts BUY Colts 33¢ $238 182d
Falcons vs. Cardinals BUY Falcons 57¢ $217 183d
Canucks vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 55¢ $396 188d
Knicks vs. Magic BUY Magic 36¢ $50 191d
Warriors vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 58¢ $29 200d
Pistons vs. Celtics BUY Pistons 58¢ $174 208d
Magic vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 39¢ $98 209d
Timberwolves vs. Kings BUY Kings 22¢ $7 210d
Pistons vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 21¢ $38 210d
Steelers vs. Bears BUY Steelers 44¢ $44 211d
Colts vs. Chiefs BUY Colts 36¢ $58 211d
Minnesota vs. Northwestern BUY Northwestern 64¢ $128 212d
Missouri vs. Oklahoma BUY Missouri 31¢ $46 212d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 20? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 214d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.01 · official $54.01 (match) · 78 history records