Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc94e…23aa crypto 281 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%267W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$2
finance 4% −$17
politics 3% $0
other 2% +$2
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 275 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 1% -9.9%
≤30d 275 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 1% -9.9%
≤90d 275 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 1% -9.9%
all 275 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 1% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses267 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)275 / 281
History coverage6d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 2h
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 98¢ $20 2h
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic pr BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 2h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 97¢ $19 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $8 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 10h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 10h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $15 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $15 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.44 · official $108.44 (match) · 556 history records