Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C9 0xc94d…3b4f crypto 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$44 (+10%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate74%39W / 14L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$53
14 days+$53
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$66
sports 2% +$1
other 1% +$2
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +4.6% -5.4% 70% 47% +1.2%
≤30d 47 +4.6% -5.4% 70% 47% +1.2%
≤90d 47 +4.6% -5.4% 70% 47% +1.2%
all 53 +13.2% +2.5% 74% 53% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 53% +2.9%
10% -7.4% 34% -6.9%
15% -16.3% 23% -15.9%
20% -24.5% 15% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses39 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage108d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $32 +$8 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$14 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$16 +426%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$4 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +42%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $3 +$5 +157%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $28 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $18 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $18 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $18 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $17 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $15 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $19 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records