Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C9 0xc94a…d6c6 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$23,328 (-65%) realized −$19,456 · open −$3,872
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,986per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$510est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,632now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,459
7 days−$6,005
14 days−$13,348
30 days−$13,348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$18,566
world 19% −$6,254
politics 1% −$206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-66.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -15.5% -23.5% 29% 29% -46.9%
≤30d 9 -34.3% -40.5% 22% 22% -64.7%
≤90d 16 -63.0% -66.5% 12% 12% -74.0%
all 16 -63.0% -66.5% 12% 12% -74.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -66.5% 12% -74.0%
10% -69.8% 12% -76.5%
15% -72.7% 12% -78.7%
20% -75.4% 12% -80.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,826 vs −$1,915 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$1,632
Realized−$19,456
Unrealized−$3,872
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Est. fees paid−$510
Open positions2
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage38d
Avg bet$1,986
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 26¢ $2,104 $1,219 −$885 (-42%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $3,400 $412 −$2,988 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $1,380 +$2,716 +197%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $3,559 −$3,500 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1,507 +$2,936 +195%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1,493 −$1,471 -99%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1,507 −$1,473 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $1,703 −$1,667 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $3,617 −$3,546 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2,997 −$2,939 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4,477 −$4,404 -98%
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $1,457 −$1,433 -98%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $797 −$797 -100%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5 May 21 $1,997 −$1,969 -99%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? May 20 $206 −$206 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? May 20 $558 −$558 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $946 −$932 -99%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2,001 −$1,912 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2,139 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $4,096 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $1,380 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $3,559 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $4,443 4h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $1,507 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $1,493 9h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $739 25h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $767 25h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1,703 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $3,617 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $2,997 9d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4,477 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,000 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $2,400 16d
US Lecce vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1,457 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 31d
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,467 33d
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $531 33d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $293 33d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $500 33d
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 34d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $500 34d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 36d
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $946 36d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $50 36d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 37d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $431 38d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $523 38d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $523 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,631.64 · official $1,631.64 (match) · 32 history records