Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C9 0xc94a…3975 weather 1516 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$425 (+0%) realized +$406 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%1405W / 47L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$115
7 days−$169
14 days−$85
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$379
crypto 0% −$125
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -1.9% -11.2% 93% 1% -10.4%
≤30d 856 -0.5% -9.9% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1452 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 0% -9.3%
all 1452 -0.1% -9.6% 97% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 0% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$4,249
Realized+$406
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses1405 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions64
Markets (closed)1452 / 1516
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 64 History 1452 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C or below on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $299 $299 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $277 $279 +$2 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 24°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $256 $258 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C or below on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $154 $155 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $149 $150 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $148 $150 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on June 21? No 98¢ 99¢ $147 $149 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $137 $137 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $119 $120 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C or higher on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C or higher on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $79 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 22? No 99¢ 99¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 22? No 99¢ 100¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $70 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $78 −$6 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 19? Jun 19 $74 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $642 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $489 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21? Jun 19 $15 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 20? Jun 19 $159 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? Jun 18 $175 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $179 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $65 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on June Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $211 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $70 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $188 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 19 Jun 18 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 19? Jun 18 $14 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $176 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 18 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $402 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $299 45m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $27 46m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $80 48m
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or below on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $50 52m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $50 58m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $87 58m
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 21? SELL No 87¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $79 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21? SELL No 96¢ $5 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21? SELL No 96¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $7 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $22 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C or below on June 21? SELL No 91¢ $52 17h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 97¢ $46 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $20 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $6 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21? SELL No 91¢ $8 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $33 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,249.29 · official $4,249.29 (match) · 3500 history records