Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:46:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc949…f6e4 other 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$524 (+1%) realized +$473 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate41%87W / 124L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$163
7 days−$163
14 days−$105
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$1,493
crypto 18% +$381
sports 17% −$497
politics 3% −$1
world 3% −$1,090
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -20.8% -28.3% 25% 0% -26.2%
≤30d 41 +3.5% -6.4% 24% 15% -14.5%
≤90d 58 -3.7% -12.9% 34% 14% -11.4%
all 211 -3.7% -12.9% 41% 15% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 15% -10.5%
10% -21.2% 12% -19.0%
15% -28.8% 11% -26.9%
20% -35.8% 10% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$25 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$473
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses87 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)211 / 212
History coverage605d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $100 $151 +$51 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $654 −$103 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $55 −$20 -36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $129 −$41 -32%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $156 −$4 -3%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $11 −$11 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $300 +$8 +3%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $10 +$90 +900%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $9 −$9 -99%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $24 −$23 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $401 +$17 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $201 +$20 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -95%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $25 −$5 -20%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $89 −$55 -62%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $2 +$12 +500%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 31 $71 +$13 +19%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner May 30 $10 +$90 +874%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $100 +$11 +11%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner May 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$5 -47%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 30 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 30 $302 −$2 -1%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $25 +$136 +536%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 22? May 22 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 21? May 22 $619 −$164 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $600 +$8 +1%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 12 $300 $0 -0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 07 $200 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 06 $503 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 14 $133 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 14 $444 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 56m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 46¢ $91 59m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $35 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $71 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $86 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $90 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $64 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $7 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $7 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $49 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $34 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 92¢ $272 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 92¢ $50 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 92¢ $138 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $494 9h
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 4¢ $4 7d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 3¢ $3 8d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs SELL G2 Esports 65¢ $156 8d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 11¢ $11 8d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 51¢ $52 8d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 4¢ $4 8d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BetBoom Team 97¢ $300 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.87 · official $150.87 (match) · 442 history records