Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:48:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc946…9c31 politics 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%2W / 38L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$348per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$7
other 28% −$7
sports 14% −$2
world 10% −$3
economics 8% −$1
culture 7% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 40 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$946) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses2 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage87d
Avg bet$348
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $67 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $1,208 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,143 −$3 -0%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Jun 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $1,170 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,158 −$2 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $1,081 −$1 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine? May 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $24 $0 -1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 03 $946 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $46 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 03 $996 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $944 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $72 −$2 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $952 $0 -0%
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 02 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027? May 01 $70 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? May 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $964 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 02 $172 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $13 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 28 $146 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $157 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 23 $63 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 1h
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $67 17h
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,207 17h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $12 17h
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,195 17h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $25 17h
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $24 17h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $30 17h
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $13 18h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $890 18h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $250 18h
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $24 18h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1,143 18h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House SELL No 98¢ $64 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $22 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $22 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 33h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House BUY No 98¢ $32 34h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $862 34h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $307 34h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $22 34h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House BUY No 98¢ $32 34h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,170 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records