Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc945…ec4c weather 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$689 (-6%) realized −$689 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%58W / 3L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% −$693
crypto 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 61 -2.7% -11.9% 95% 0% -14.8%
all 61 -2.7% -11.9% 95% 0% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -14.8%
10% -20.4% 0% -23.0%
15% -28.1% 0% -30.4%
20% -35.1% 0% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$241 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$689
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses58 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage84d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 19? Jun 19 $108 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $59 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $108 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $108 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $166 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $165 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $165 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $165 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 4? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 4? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $164 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $164 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C or below on May 31? Jun 01 $163 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? May 30 $44 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? May 30 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 27? May 27 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 26? May 25 $163 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on May 24? May 23 $163 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 27°C or below on May 18? May 22 $162 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 20°C or below on May 16? May 15 $162 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 3? May 03 $162 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 8°C on May 1? May 01 $162 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 29? Apr 30 $161 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 29? Apr 29 $125 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 28? Apr 28 $161 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 26? Apr 26 $160 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 26? Apr 26 $160 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 25? Apr 24 $159 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or below on April 24? Apr 24 $159 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C on April 23? Apr 22 $159 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 22? Apr 22 $678 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 21? Apr 21 $599 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 21? Apr 21 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on April 20? Apr 20 $682 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 19? Apr 18 $679 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on April 18? Apr 18 $63 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 18? Apr 18 $613 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 16? Apr 17 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 15? Apr 15 $670 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 10? Apr 12 $408 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 11? Apr 12 $262 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 11? Apr 11 $860 −$668 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 11? Apr 11 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $89 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $19 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $59 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $108 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $59 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $108 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $59 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $108 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $108 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $58 7d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $166 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $165 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $165 12d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $165 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $37 15d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $7 15d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $15 15d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $15 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $127 15d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $164 16d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $164 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C or below on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $163 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $44 23d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $120 23d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $78 23d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $85 23d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $163 26d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $163 28d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 27°C or below on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $162 34d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 20°C or below on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $162 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.07 · official $167.07 (match) · 267 history records