Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc944…1686 weather 496 markets active 5h ago coverage 50d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$1,538 (+27%) realized +$1,548 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%129W / 364L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day63.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$166
14 days+$488
30 days−$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 82% +$1,099
other 14% +$97
sports 3% −$157
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -18.9% -26.6% 24% 21% +3.4%
≤30d 424 -26.1% -33.1% 18% 17% -15.7%
≤90d 493 +28.6% +16.4% 26% 24% +5.4%
all 493 +28.6% +16.4% 26% 24% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +16.4% 24% +5.4%
10% ← realistic here +5.2% 22% -4.7%
15% -4.9% 21% -13.9%
20% -14.2% 20% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$7 · ×4.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$497
Realized+$1,548
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses129 / 364
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)493 / 496
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day63.4
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 493 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? No 34¢ 30¢ $296 $260 −$36 (-12%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 72¢ $83 $114 +$31 (+38%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $88 $80 −$8 (-9%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 85¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+59%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-28%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-69%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 12? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $23 +$49 +218%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $13 +$4 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 −$16 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $53 +$145 +273%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $49 −$41 -84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $31 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$35 +101%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$14 +152%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $34 −$32 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$6 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $99 −$96 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 +$8 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $85 +$18 +21%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $83 −$26 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 +$6 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 +$10 +19%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $122 +$57 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 95¢ $48 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 47¢ $24 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 19¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 19¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 9¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $497.33 · official $497.25 (match) · 3500 history records