Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:10:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc93d…23d5 sports 146 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (763 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,758 (-18%) realized −$1,675 · open −$83
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%49W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day762.5pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,008now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,956
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (763 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 39% -28.4%
≤30d 115 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 39% -28.4%
≤90d 115 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 39% -28.4%
all 115 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 39% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover762.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 39% -28.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 34% -35.2%
15% -30.8% 30% -41.5%
20% -37.6% 28% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$52 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,008
Realized−$1,675
Unrealized−$83
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses49 / 66
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions31
Markets (closed)115 / 146
History coverage1d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day762.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 72¢ 62¢ $256 $223 −$33 (-13%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 40¢ 44¢ $173 $189 +$16 (+9%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 55¢ $86 $118 +$32 (+38%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 43¢ 76¢ $44 $77 +$33 (+75%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Minnesota Twins 76¢ 100¢ $34 $44 +$11 (+32%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 40¢ 84¢ $21 $44 +$23 (+107%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 85¢ 92¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+7%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 46¢ $33 $26 −$7 (-22%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 48¢ $21 $23 +$3 (+12%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 74¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Cabo Verde 77¢ 78¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Los Angeles Knight Riders 49¢ 60¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+22%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Boston Red Sox 30¢ $53 $15 −$38 (-72%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 81¢ 70¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 72¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+4%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 52¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-9%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Baltimore Orioles 56¢ 92¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+65%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 33¢ 24¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-25%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers $12 $10 −$1 (-12%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Under 58¢ 64¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Los Angeles Angels 58¢ 16¢ $25 $7 −$18 (-72%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Under 51¢ 89¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+75%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Under 33¢ 30¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) New Zealand 65¢ 64¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) New York Mets 52¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $3 +$3 +101%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $12 $0 +2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $65 −$21 -33%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $49 +$8 +16%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $140 −$24 -17%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $3 +$3 +86%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 21 $9 +$6 +64%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $2 +$3 +108%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $4 +$4 +93%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $13 +$11 +83%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 21 $3 +$4 +170%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $209 +$212 +102%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $245 +$66 +27%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 21 $7 −$1 -18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $118 −$46 -39%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $16 +$6 +36%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $2 +$4 +222%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $16 −$16 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $11 +$3 +25%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $12 +$12 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $20 +$7 +36%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $7 −$7 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $11 −$11 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $145 −$38 -26%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $6 $0 +8%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $85 −$80 -94%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 21 $4 +$2 +52%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $6 $0 -2%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $16 +$3 +21%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $28 +$72 +261%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Daria Snigur Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $3 +$7 +288%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $9 +$2 +20%
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 21 $103 −$36 -35%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anastasia Jun 21 $36 +$101 +279%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Johnson vs Emiliana Arango Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Giles Hussey vs Marco Trungellit Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $308 −$302 -98%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Marc Polm Jun 21 $76 −$75 -99%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 21 $50 +$7 +13%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus Jun 21 $31 −$25 -83%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 21 $1 +$5 +488%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $6 2m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $1 2m
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 31¢ $2 3m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $8 4m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $4 6m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $11 7m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $2 8m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $7 8m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $8 16m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 26m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $6 34m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $2 40m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 95¢ $5 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $5 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $4 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 82¢ $131 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 43¢ $3 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 62¢ $6 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 29¢ $2 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 62¢ $6 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay $0 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 50¢ $3 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay $1 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 13¢ $1 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 30¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,008.18 · official $1,008.18 (match) · 859 history records