Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C9 0xc93b…93c6 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$81 · open −$51
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate55%11W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$3,708now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$54
14 days+$87
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$84
sports 43% −$25
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -11.6% -20.0% 71% 29% -6.5%
≤30d 20 -12.2% -20.5% 55% 15% -10.9%
≤90d 20 -12.2% -20.5% 55% 15% -10.9%
all 20 -12.2% -20.5% 55% 15% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 15% -10.9%
10% -28.1% 5% -19.4%
15% -35.1% 5% -27.2%
20% -41.4% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$25 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$3,708
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses11 / 9
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions8
Markets (closed)20 / 31
History coverage27d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $711 $739 +$28 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $546 $601 +$54 (+10%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $650 $596 −$54 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $443 $573 +$130 (+29%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $628 $492 −$136 (-22%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $461 $340 −$121 (-26%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $274 $293 +$19 (+7%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 17¢ 28¢ $45 $74 +$29 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 16 $87 −$29 -33%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $168 +$32 +19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $333 +$34 +10%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $23 +$5 +20%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $295 +$6 +2%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $691 +$7 +1%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $816 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 +$2 +193%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $155 +$12 +8%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $271 +$23 +8%
Will HEROIC win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 01 $10 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $374 −$179 -48%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 22 $769 +$31 +4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 22 $276 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN - Map 2 Winner May 22 $327 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $3 −$1 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $104 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $64 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $58 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 AND France vs BUY 30¢ $3 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 84¢ $56 36h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 84¢ $74 36h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 84¢ $38 36h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $15 36h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 89¢ $89 37h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 92¢ $184 37h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 90¢ $60 37h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 98¢ $252 38h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 98¢ $11 38h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 98¢ $31 38h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 90¢ $270 38h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz $7 38h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 27¢ $25 38h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 35¢ $27 40h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 29¢ $12 40h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 29¢ $3 40h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 29¢ $5 40h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 29¢ $2 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 29¢ $14 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Belgium BUY 15¢ $3 43h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $8 2d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes $7 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $122 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports $1 4d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $11 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Vitality 96¢ $553 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,707.51 · official $3,707.54 (match) · 155 history records