Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc935…74cf world 748 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$169 (+2%) realized +$187 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%347W / 372L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$41
14 days+$70
30 days+$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$404
other 23% −$264
weather 8% +$46
finance 4% +$19
politics 4% −$26
crypto 4% −$62
culture 1% +$22
tech 1% −$5
sports 1% −$5
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +1.0% -8.6% 64% 50% -4.3%
≤30d 87 +12.3% +1.6% 61% 51% +0.2%
≤90d 382 +0.5% -9.0% 51% 44% -3.1%
all 719 -3.0% -12.3% 48% 38% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 38% -7.7%
10% -20.7% 27% -16.5%
15% -28.3% 18% -24.6%
20% -35.4% 14% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized+$187
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses347 / 372
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions25
Markets (closed)719 / 748
History coverage198d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 719 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 64¢ 52¢ $36 $29 −$6 (-18%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 59¢ 48¢ $32 $26 −$6 (-19%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 72¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+13%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 41¢ 34¢ $29 $24 −$5 (-17%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 89¢ 94¢ $22 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $20 $22 +$1 (+7%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $13 $21 +$7 (+56%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 75¢ 81¢ $19 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 56¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+26%)
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 50¢ 72¢ $10 $15 +$4 (+44%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 72¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+11%)
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $10 $12 +$1 (+14%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $12 $12 −$1 (-6%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 52¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-6%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 25¢ 10¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-59%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 35¢ 31¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $8 $5 −$2 (-30%)
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 14 $29 +$4 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $18 +$28 +153%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $88 +$11 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $48 −$5 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $36 +$6 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $62 +$7 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $41 +$2 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $28 +$4 +16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $50 +$16 +31%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +178%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $32 −$15 -48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $18 −$7 -40%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $30 +$8 +26%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 11 $22 +$2 +11%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $20 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 10 $18 +$2 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $39 +$11 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 10 $48 +$9 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? Jun 09 $9 +$8 +87%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 09 $27 +$8 +31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $11 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$5 +257%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $4 +$3 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 4? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $8 +$4 +54%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $36 +$2 +7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 01 $27 +$5 +20%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $24 +$2 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $16 +$1 +9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $9 +$11 +125%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 72¢ $14 40m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $8 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 40¢ $6 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $12 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 95¢ $16 11h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 78¢ $31 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 20h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 37¢ $15 23h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $26 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY 8¢ $5 27h
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 27h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 27h
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 75¢ $19 41h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 77¢ $13 41h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $13 41h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 69¢ $10 47h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $46 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 85¢ $26 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $15 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $24 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 96¢ $19 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. E BUY 10¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14 BUY 8¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.40 · official $352.62 (match) · 2543 history records