Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:55:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc933…f519 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$375 (-47%) realized −$329 · open −$46
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$89
14 days−$89
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$255
crypto 28% −$159
other 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-49.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -40.6% -46.2% 43% 29% -33.9%
≤30d 7 -40.6% -46.2% 43% 29% -33.9%
≤90d 16 -54.6% -58.9% 25% 19% -54.1%
all 19 -43.8% -49.1% 32% 26% -55.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.1% 26% -55.6%
10% -54.0% 26% -59.8%
15% -58.5% 16% -63.7%
20% -62.5% 16% -67.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$37 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$329
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage95d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs InterActive Philippines 32¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $27 −$27 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $40 −$40 -99%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $40 +$22 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $26 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $96 +$55 +58%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $42 −$41 -99%
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a draw? Apr 04 $43 −$2 -4%
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 04 $56 −$45 -81%
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $30 −$10 -33%
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 04 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 03 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs GLYPH - Game 1 Winner Apr 03 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 17 $14 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 17 $10 +$11 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe BUY InterActive Philippines 32¢ $47 1h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY Yangon Galacticos 39¢ $27 30h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 60¢ $40 30h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Amaru Gaming 99¢ $63 31h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 63¢ $40 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $26 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 33h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 35h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over $1 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $51 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $151 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $96 5d
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Levante UD: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $42 77d
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $42 77d
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $43 77d
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 17¢ $0 77d
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 12¢ $11 77d
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-04-04? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 77d
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $13 77d
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 62¢ $56 77d
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 77d
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $10 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $61 78d
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs GLYPH - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 36¢ $36 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $17 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $18 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $14 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $77 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 95d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $8 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 39 history records