Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc932…e6a5 sports 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24,755 (+11%) realized +$10,334 · open +$14,421
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%120W / 68L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$1,084per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$57,224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$230
7 days−$994
14 days−$789
30 days−$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$23,220
sports 18% +$3,833
politics 16% −$6,661
other 15% +$3,939
crypto 10% +$433
economics 1% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -63.3% -66.8% 0% 0% -33.9%
≤30d 15 -15.5% -23.6% 40% 40% -8.9%
≤90d 78 +0.4% -9.1% 63% 51% +6.4%
all 188 +1.5% -8.2% 64% 52% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 52% -3.5%
10% -17.0% 42% -12.7%
15% -25.0% 31% -21.1%
20% -32.3% 18% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$700) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$237 vs −$267 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$57,224
Realized+$10,334
Unrealized+$14,421
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses120 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions13
Markets (closed)188 / 202
History coverage161d
Avg bet$1,084
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 38¢ 48¢ $21,704 $27,307 +$5,603 (+26%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 47¢ 76¢ $10,183 $16,518 +$6,335 (+62%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 65¢ 69¢ $4,677 $4,968 +$291 (+6%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 30¢ 60¢ $1,341 $2,637 +$1,296 (+97%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 96¢ $1,275 $1,829 +$554 (+43%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 69¢ 80¢ $1,402 $1,629 +$227 (+16%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 69¢ 68¢ $1,001 $986 −$15 (-1%)
Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $810 $923 +$113 (+14%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $220 $212 −$8 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $53 $84 +$31 (+58%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $55 $63 +$8 (+14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $53 $41 −$12 (-24%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $233 −$230 -99%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $508 −$433 -85%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $313 −$129 -41%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $1,703 −$201 -12%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $348 +$409 +118%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $347 −$204 -59%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $206 −$201 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $450 +$118 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $262 +$189 +72%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $41 −$41 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $305 +$215 +70%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? May 28 $282 −$282 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $456 +$203 +44%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $407 +$606 +149%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the May 23 $349 −$349 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 10 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 10 $226 +$14 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 10 $102 +$52 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 10 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 09 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 09 $100 +$1 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca May 09 $54 −$53 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 07 $5 +$1 +15%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $328 −$114 -35%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $515 +$364 +70%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 02 $1,783 −$741 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 02 $26 −$26 -100%
Madrid Open: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev May 01 $403 +$110 +27%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? May 01 $1,032 +$226 +22%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Mad May 01 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30? May 01 $501 +$232 +46%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30? May 01 $1,709 +$573 +34%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026? May 01 $2,456 +$1,056 +43%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $14,304 +$5,592 +39%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30? Apr 28 $1,451 +$456 +31%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 19 $209 −$209 -100%
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Apr 17 $177 −$27 -15%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo Apr 17 $94 +$67 +71%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $233 −$130 -56%
BMW Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Joao Fonseca Apr 15 $297 +$106 +36%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $103 +$194 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 14 $28 +$75 +264%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Monte Carlo Masters? Apr 13 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $859 −$717 -83%
Capitals vs. Penguins Apr 12 $402 −$402 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Apr 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Pistons vs. Hornets Apr 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik Apr 10 $513 +$68 +13%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins make the NHL Playoffs? Apr 10 $104 +$46 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $590 1h
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 69¢ $657 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $29 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $222 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $1,585 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 63¢ $404 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $233 39h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $2,998 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes $35 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes $30 2d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Ben Shelton 43¢ $183 3d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 44¢ $104 4d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Ben Shelton 72¢ $313 4d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $6,244 5d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $444 5d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 47¢ $92 7d
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $5,396 7d
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $5,170 7d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 49¢ $308 7d
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $132 8d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 77¢ $143 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca SELL Joao Fonseca 29¢ $143 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Joao Fonseca 70¢ $135 14d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 19¢ $103 14d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 14d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 14d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $300 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 95¢ $569 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 70¢ $101 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57,223.93 · official $57,224.64 (match) · 1139 history records