trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -2.3% | -11.6% | 30% | 0% | -11.5% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -2.2% | -11.6% | 27% | 0% | -11.4% |
| all | 26 | +4.2% | -5.8% | 54% | 4% | -6.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -5.8% | 4% | -6.1% |
| 10% | -14.8% | 4% | -15.1% |
| 15% | -23.0% | 4% | -23.3% |
| 20% | -30.6% | 4% | -30.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $29 | $29 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 10¢ | 14¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+35%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 18 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $31 | $0 | -0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 27 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 26 | $27 | +$1 | +2% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 24 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 23 | $23 | −$2 | -10% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 21 | $35 | −$5 | -14% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 21 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? | May 21 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 21 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 19 | $39 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? | May 05 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City | Apr 05 | $61 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? | Apr 05 | $60 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? | Apr 04 | $61 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 02 | $61 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 01 | $61 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day | Mar 31 | $61 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 28? | Mar 31 | $60 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? | Mar 27 | $59 | +$1 | +1% |
| Robert Morris vs. Alabama | Mar 21 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21? | Mar 21 | $58 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Donald Trump say NATO 3+ times during his presser with Starmer on | Mar 21 | $19 | +$41 | +223% |