Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C9 0xc932…289b sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$121 (+22%) realized +$126 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$199
other 38% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +54.0% +39.3% 56% 56% +35.8%
≤30d 9 +54.0% +39.3% 56% 56% +35.8%
≤90d 9 +54.0% +39.3% 56% 56% +35.8%
all 9 +54.0% +39.3% 56% 56% +35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.3% 56% +35.8%
10% +26.0% 56% +22.8%
15% +13.8% 56% +10.9%
20% +2.7% 56% +0.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$35 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$126
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Declan Rice: 2+ assists Yes 53¢ 50¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Over 34¢ 33¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $80 +$96 +119%
Petar Musa: 2+ goals Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $40 −$39 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$56 +276%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $41 +$51 +126%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$56 +276%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $77 +$69 +89%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 10m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $41 11m
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 12m
Petar Musa: 2+ goals SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 42¢ $40 1h
Petar Musa: 2+ goals BUY Yes 92¢ $30 1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $77 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $92 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $80 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $77 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 43¢ $41 1h
Declan Rice: 2+ assists BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $51 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $146 1h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $77 2h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $20 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $20 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.00 · official $165.01 (match) · 19 history records