Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:39:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C9 0xc930…8b60 crypto 275 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,346 (+10%) realized +$2,346 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate55%150W / 123L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$46
sports 17% +$2,300
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 31 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 92 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 273 -42.0% -47.5% 55% 1% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.5% 1% -0.4%
10% -52.5% 1% -9.9%
15% -57.1% 1% -18.6%
20% -61.3% 1% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -60% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$0 · ×1564.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1955.14 per $1 lost it wins $1955.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$2,346
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses150 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)273 / 275
History coverage142d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 29 $28 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 27 $27 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 24 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 19 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 10? May 10 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 9? May 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 7? May 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 6? May 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 5? May 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 4? May 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 3? May 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 2? May 03 $24 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 1? May 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 30? May 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $24 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $24 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $30 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $29 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $29 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? BUY No 98¢ $28 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $28 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $28 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? BUY No 99¢ $27 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY No 98¢ $27 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 99¢ $26 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.69 · official $32.69 (match) · 626 history records