Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:04:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc92f…4413 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$127
7 days−$51
14 days−$170
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$125
crypto 30% −$9
sports 7% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -43.1% -48.5% 33% 22% +15.0%
≤30d 40 -17.0% -24.9% 40% 38% -9.2%
≤90d 40 -17.0% -24.9% 40% 38% -9.2%
all 40 -17.0% -24.9% 40% 38% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 38% -9.2%
10% -32.1% 32% -17.9%
15% -38.7% 28% -25.9%
20% -44.7% 20% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$18 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage14d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $588 −$127 -22%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $14 −$6 -44%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $7 $0 +6%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $6 −$3 -41%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $30 +$11 +38%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $206 +$88 +43%
Lionel Messi: 3+ shots Jun 22 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$28 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -96%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$26 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $81 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$12 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 19 $43 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $33 +$11 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$12 +60%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $27 −$24 -88%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $33 −$9 -27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$1 -19%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$23 -82%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $43 +$18 +42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $87 −$44 -51%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$4 -45%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -43%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$2 -45%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$16 +85%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -68%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$13 +410%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$13 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 29¢ $150 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $279 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 52¢ $296 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $310 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 5d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 5d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $42 6d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 72¢ $30 6d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $294 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 6d
Lionel Messi: 3+ shots SELL Yes 44¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $196 6d
Lionel Messi: 3+ shots BUY Yes 86¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $69 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $41 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $15 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 8d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $16 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records