Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C9 0xc92c…6f15 sports 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$658 (-6%) realized −$679 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%32W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,896now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$100
7 days+$273
14 days+$501
30 days−$483
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$26
other 21% +$261
world 19% −$821
politics 13% −$150
tech 3% +$64
crypto 1% −$100
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -16.7% -24.6% 46% 46% +6.2%
≤30d 28 -2.1% -11.4% 54% 50% -18.7%
≤90d 61 -6.0% -15.0% 51% 48% -16.9%
all 66 -5.7% -14.7% 48% 44% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 44% -16.6%
10% -22.8% 42% -24.6%
15% -30.3% 41% -31.9%
20% -37.1% 32% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$102 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$1,896
Realized−$679
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses32 / 34
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions20
Markets (closed)66 / 86
History coverage114d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 71¢ 82¢ $200 $232 +$32 (+16%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ 52¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $70 $68 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+31%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 54¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 60¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$222 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $101 +$63 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $600 +$204 +34%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $102 +$184 +180%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $400 +$17 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $200 +$149 +75%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $302 +$64 +21%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $152 +$107 +70%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $101 +$84 +83%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? May 29 $40 $0 -1%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? May 29 $41 −$40 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 29 $101 −$100 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $101 +$74 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? May 21 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum May 20 $303 −$300 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 20 $101 +$91 +90%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $101 +$68 +67%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards May 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducks May 17 $101 −$100 -99%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. KT Wiz May 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg, Qualification: McCartney Kessler vs Rena May 16 $101 +$60 +60%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. KT Wiz May 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 13 $101 +$77 +76%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 13 $172 −$31 -18%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $101 +$65 +65%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Mariano Navone vs Hamad Medjedovic May 11 $101 +$77 +76%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Kalinskaya vs Jelena Ostapenko May 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $101 +$57 +57%
New York Liberty vs. Washington Mystics May 11 $202 +$77 +38%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $101 +$48 +48%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $101 +$63 +62%
Shanxi Loongs vs. Zhejiang Lions May 10 $39 −$39 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Nikola Bartunkova May 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Jiujiang: Xiaodi You vs En-Shuo Liang May 10 $75 +$65 +86%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $203 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $25 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 17h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 17h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 17h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 17h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 28h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 28h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 28h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 28h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $72 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 28h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $101 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $604 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $51 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $102 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,896.27 · official $1,896.28 (match) · 714 history records