Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:23:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc929…1f78 crypto 210 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,428 (-26%) realized −$1,428 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%57W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$319
7 days−$319
14 days−$319
30 days−$319
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,797
sports 1% −$54
other 1% −$35
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -24.2% -31.4% 17% 17% -67.7%
≤30d 12 -24.2% -31.4% 17% 17% -67.7%
≤90d 12 -24.2% -31.4% 17% 17% -67.7%
all 210 -16.0% -24.0% 27% 27% -41.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 27% -41.1%
10% -31.3% 26% -46.7%
15% -37.9% 25% -51.9%
20% -44.0% 22% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$26 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,428
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses57 / 153
Open positions0
Markets (closed)210 / 210
History coverage137d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 210 Trades
no open positions (146 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 27 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 27 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $64 −$60 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 27 $60 −$57 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 27 $12 +$79 +644%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 27 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $50 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 09 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 09 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Mar 09 $10 +$20 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 09 $12 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 09 $8 +$74 +921%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 09 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 09 $22 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 09 $10 +$14 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 09 $10 +$17 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 08 $23 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Mar 08 $10 +$27 +268%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 08 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 08 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 08 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 08 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 08 $19 +$88 +462%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 08 $12 +$48 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 08 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 08 $22 +$17 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 492 history records