Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:12:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc928…7377 other 174 markets active 5h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$93 (-2%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate39%67W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$4
other 23% −$8
politics 20% −$2
sports 17% −$79
crypto 4% −$1
economics 3% $0
finance 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 28 +0.3% -9.3% 57% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 81 -1.5% -10.9% 37% 0% -9.7%
all 173 +0.7% -8.9% 39% 4% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 4% -11.0%
10% -17.6% 2% -19.5%
15% -25.6% 2% -27.3%
20% -32.9% 2% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses67 / 106
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 174
History coverage545d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $34 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $76 −$4 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $76 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $75 +$1 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $36 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $75 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $134 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $163 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $6 $0 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $105 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $38 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $35 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $72 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $96 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $22 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $35 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $44 −$1 -2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $103 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $46 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $33 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Apr 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $76 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $102 −$1 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $69 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $172 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $6 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $28 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $34 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $9 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $25 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $34 32h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 40h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $31 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $3 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $34 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $20 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $18 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $41 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $41 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $38 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $38 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $38 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $38 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $38 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $14 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $24 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $37 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.00 (match) · 620 history records