Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:12:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc927…a3c2 sports 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,558 (+14%) realized +$1,655 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%28W / 27L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$339est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$746
7 days+$707
14 days+$1,545
30 days+$1,545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1,302
other 2% +$146
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +9.2% -1.2% 53% 53% +1.8%
≤30d 55 +4.9% -5.1% 51% 51% +3.3%
≤90d 55 +4.9% -5.1% 51% 51% +3.3%
all 55 +4.9% -5.1% 51% 51% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 51% +3.3%
10% -14.2% 45% -6.6%
15% -22.5% 45% -15.6%
20% -30.1% 44% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$129 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized+$1,655
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses28 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$339
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage12d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 25¢ 57¢ $100 $230 +$130 (+130%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 29¢ 42¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Paper Rex 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $101 +$65 +64%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $210 +$187 +89%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $102 −$10 -10%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $101 +$72 +71%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $170 +$146 +86%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $101 +$72 +71%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $102 +$105 +103%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $217 −$217 -100%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $72 +$188 +263%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $51 +$173 +338%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $177 +$98 +56%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $47 +$44 +94%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $501 −$501 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $113 −$113 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $806 +$538 +67%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $148 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $342 −$342 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $51 +$21 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $462 +$67 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $440 +$263 +60%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $488 −$488 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $622 +$648 +104%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $542 −$542 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $443 +$226 +51%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 11 $31 −$2 -6%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $648 +$697 +108%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $61 −$28 -46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 −$45 -88%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $40 +$23 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $371 +$197 +53%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $100 −$6 -6%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $301 +$220 +73%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $25 +$4 +14%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $100 +$22 +22%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $100 −$6 -6%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $250 +$291 +116%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $101 +$75 +74%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $25 +$26 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 29¢ $10 14m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $166 36m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $397 36m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $102 37m
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 19¢ $7 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 52¢ $101 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $101 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 60¢ $101 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 41¢ $92 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 44¢ $102 2h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 99¢ $174 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $102 3h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 57¢ $101 4h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 48¢ $102 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $317 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 96¢ $173 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $69 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 21h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 93¢ $206 21h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $102 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 55¢ $101 23h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 25¢ $36 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 2¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 6¢ $21 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 11¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 16¢ $21 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $53 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $102 27h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 81¢ $60 28h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 21¢ $20 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.20 · official $343.20 (match) · 221 history records