Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:58:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc925…767c weather 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate72%23W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$29
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$24
world 30% −$47
weather 24% +$15
politics 2% +$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +25.1% +13.2% 57% 14% -6.5%
≤30d 32 +11.5% +0.8% 72% 6% -10.6%
≤90d 32 +11.5% +0.8% 72% 6% -10.6%
all 32 +11.5% +0.8% 72% 6% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 6% -10.6%
10% -8.8% 6% -19.1%
15% -17.6% 6% -27.0%
20% -25.7% 6% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses23 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 35
History coverage28d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 97¢ 100¢ $88 $91 +$3 (+3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $48 $0 -1%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3 +$22 +650%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $66 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $61 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $72 +$2 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $54 +$1 +1%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 09 $57 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $95 +$1 +1%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 08 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $21 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $94 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $48 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 07 $68 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $58 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $78 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $63 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 05 $63 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $89 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,325 −$48 -4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,951 −$35 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? SELL No 95¢ $48 6h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY No 96¢ $48 6h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 12h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 13h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 39h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 46h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $28 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 94¢ $32 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? SELL Yes 84¢ $29 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $34 4d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY Yes 99¢ $61 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $12 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 40¢ $3 5d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 42¢ $4 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $72 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $54 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $83 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $95 8d
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw BUY No 99¢ $53 8d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 97¢ $88 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? SELL Yes 86¢ $10 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? BUY Yes 96¢ $11 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $48 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? BUY Yes 98¢ $94 9d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 99¢ $68 9d
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? BUY No 97¢ $57 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.79 · official $98.09 (match) · 82 history records