Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:59:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc925…2568 crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$206 (+9%) realized +$200 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%28W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day32.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$25
sports 2% +$66
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +4.9% -5.1% 47% 44% -8.1%
≤30d 59 +4.9% -5.1% 47% 44% -8.1%
≤90d 59 +4.9% -5.1% 47% 44% -8.1%
all 59 +4.9% -5.1% 47% 44% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 44% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 37% -16.9%
15% -22.5% 29% -24.9%
20% -30.1% 22% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$19 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$200
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage3d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day32.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 84¢ 94¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $62 +$40 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $35 −$15 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $76 −$16 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $11 +$31 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $56 +$21 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $129 +$103 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $128 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $184 −$28 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $257 −$28 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $132 +$27 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $128 +$76 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $102 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$13 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$28 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$20 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.26 · official $46.14 · 134 history records