Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:24:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc924…b6ac other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$41 (+5%) realized +$23 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%3W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$116
7 days+$113
14 days−$119
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$163
sports 32% −$264
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.9% -11.2% 30% 30% +12.6%
≤30d 16 -38.7% -44.5% 19% 19% -25.0%
≤90d 16 -38.7% -44.5% 19% 19% -25.0%
all 16 -38.7% -44.5% 19% 19% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.5% 19% -25.0%
10% -49.8% 19% -32.2%
15% -54.7% 19% -38.7%
20% -59.1% 19% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$40 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses3 / 13
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage11d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+44%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $84 −$82 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $59 −$57 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $59 +$82 +139%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $59 −$58 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $35 −$34 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $59 +$76 +129%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 +$244 +413%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $25 −$24 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $60 −$58 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? Jun 14 $60 −$58 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $35 −$34 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $59 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 17¢ $59 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 16h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $59 34h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $59 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 36¢ $24 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $59 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $303 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $59 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $25 5d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $60 10d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $16 10d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 10d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 10d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 10d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $60 11d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 11d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 11d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.18 · official $143.18 (match) · 27 history records