Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

C9 0xc923…5f12 sports 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 570d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1,116 (-27%) realized −$1,078 · open −$38

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR49%break-even

Win rate51%36W / 35L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$55per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$86

7 days−$24

14 days−$24

30 days−$24

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +49%

net ROI/market (all)-18.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-16.2%	-24.2%	54%	54%	-12.6%
≤30d	13	-16.2%	-24.2%	54%	54%	-12.6%
≤90d	13	-16.2%	-24.2%	54%	54%	-12.6%
all	71	-10.1%	-18.6%	51%	49%	-33.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.6%	49%	-33.9%
10%	-26.4%	44%	-40.2%
15%	-33.5%	41%	-46.0%
20%	-40.1%	39%	-51.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -19% → late -1% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$31 vs −$62 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.51 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

570d coverage

Net worth$177

Realized−$1,078

Unrealized−$38

Win rate (resolved)51%

Wins / losses36 / 35

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions4

Markets (closed)71 / 75

History coverage570d

Avg bet$55

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 71 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5)	England	63¢	46¢	$65	$47	−$18 (-28%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	84¢	76¢	$50	$45	−$5 (-10%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	Over	84¢	60¢	$50	$35	−$15 (-29%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 23	$50	+$22	+43%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$51	+$33	+65%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$17	−$17	-98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$66	−$49	-74%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$62	−$62	-100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$51	+$37	+73%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$24	+$3	+12%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 20	$50	+$17	+34%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	Jun 20	$25	+$21	+82%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$39	−$38	-97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$41	−$40	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$182	+$99	+54%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Mar 23	$50	−$21	-42%
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Mar 23	$30	−$24	-80%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Mar 23	$7	−$6	-88%
Bad Bunny video becomes most viewed SB halftime on YouTube in 1st mont	Feb 12	$10	+$2	+21%
Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5	Jan 25	$64	−$64	-100%
Cavaliers vs. Magic	Jan 24	$60	−$60	-100%
Knicks vs. 76ers	Jan 24	$50	−$50	-100%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)	Jan 24	$50	+$44	+88%
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 120.5	Jan 24	$50	+$29	+59%
Spread: Grizzlies (-5.5)	Jan 23	$50	−$50	-100%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5)	Jan 23	$50	−$50	-100%
Spread: Clippers (-2.5)	Jan 23	$5	+$6	+127%
Lakers vs. Clippers	Jan 23	$20	+$20	+100%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5)	Jan 23	$40	+$37	+92%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)	Jan 23	$40	+$34	+85%
Rockets vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 107.5	Jan 23	$30	+$24	+81%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5)	Jan 22	$50	+$50	+100%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5)	Jan 22	$23	+$21	+92%
Spread: Lakers (-1.5)	Jan 21	$20	+$16	+82%
Spread: Warriors (-5.5)	Jan 21	$21	+$16	+75%
Suns vs. 76ers: 1H O/U 115.5	Jan 20	$20	−$20	-100%
Suns vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline	Jan 20	$25	−$25	-100%
O/U 48.5	Jan 20	$50	+$36	+72%
Miami vs. Indiana: O/U 47.5	Jan 19	$50	−$50	-100%
Rams vs. Bears: O/U 48.5	Jan 19	$52	+$56	+108%
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)	Jan 18	$40	+$39	+98%
Patriots Team Total: O/U 22.5	Jan 18	$20	+$21	+103%
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)	Jan 18	$100	−$100	-100%
Bills vs. Broncos	Jan 18	$70	+$67	+95%
Bills vs. Broncos: O/U 46.5	Jan 18	$50	+$56	+112%
Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 36.5	Jan 12	$100	−$100	-100%
Chargers vs. Patriots	Jan 12	$15	−$15	-100%
Spread: Patriots (-6.5)	Jan 12	$10	−$10	-100%
1H Spread: Patriots (-2.5)	Jan 12	$5	−$4	-87%
Spread: Patriots (-4.5)	Jan 12	$61	+$6	+10%
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 41.5	Jan 12	$51	+$33	+65%
Chargers vs. Patriots: 1H Moneyline	Jan 12	$30	−$30	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$50	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	84¢	$50	1h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	63¢	$66	1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	84¢	$50	1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	SELL Portugal	100¢	$72	1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	60¢	$51	3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	69¢	$50	3h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	15¢	$17	42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	17¢	$17	42h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$66	44h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	50¢	$25	45h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$88	45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$36	47h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5	BUY Over	57¢	$51	47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$50	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$27	3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	SELL Brazil	100¢	$67	3d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	100¢	$46	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$24	3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Brazil	74¢	$50	3d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	54¢	$25	3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	2¢	$3	4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$41	5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$15	5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	9¢	$21	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$280	6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$182	7d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	SELL Yes	26¢	$29	92d
Backpack FDV above $400M one day after launch?	SELL Yes	5¢	$6	92d
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	92d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.93 · official $178.12 (match) · 147 history records