Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C9 0xc921…809a other 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$38 (+0%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 112L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$5
politics 31% −$5
sports 8% +$47
crypto 5% $0
economics 3% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 120 -1.4% -10.8% 8% 5% -9.3%
all 125 -1.8% -11.1% 10% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 6% -9.2%
10% -19.6% 5% -17.9%
15% -27.4% 2% -25.8%
20% -34.5% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3.449612121815571% → late -0.11326739035171195% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×13.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 112
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage109d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Magic vs. Cavaliers Magic 20¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Clippers Pacers 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Nets vs. Trail Blazers Nets 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bulls vs. 76ers Bulls 32¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Warriors Wizards 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
76ers vs. Heat 76ers 56¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $74 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $59 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $154 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $71 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $89 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $77 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $135 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $82 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $79 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $73 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $67 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 03 $79 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $61 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $213 $0 -0%
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $86 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $58 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $132 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $114 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $71 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 27 $70 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $274 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $71 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $130 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $61 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $127 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 21 $69 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $183 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $240 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $173 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 11h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 22h
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 2d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 3d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $8 3d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $8 4d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 6d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 8d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 15d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $67 22d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $67 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 23d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 23d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 23d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $84 24d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $84 24d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 25d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 26d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $71 27d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $71 27d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $79 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.99 · official $10.99 (match) · 370 history records