Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc921…d590 world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$5
other 17% +$1
crypto 7% −$10
politics 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -1.6% -11.0% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 16 -0.8% -10.3% 31% 0% -10.3%
all 42 -7.5% -16.3% 40% 2% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 2% -11.2%
10% -24.3% 2% -19.7%
15% -31.6% 2% -27.4%
20% -38.3% 2% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage452d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 89¢ 91¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $64 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $29 −$2 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $32 +$2 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $32 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $14 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $39 −$3 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $35 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 20 $21 −$1 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $26 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 14 $12 −$8 -67%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 30 $9 −$1 -8%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31? May 27 $9 $0 +3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 24 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 21 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $4 +$2 +51%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -66%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 25 $8 −$2 -26%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win The 2025 Masters? Apr 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 05 $1 $0 +6%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Apr 01 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jay-Z settle with his accuser before April? Mar 30 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 89¢ $28 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $31 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $31 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $3 35h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $15 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $17 41h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $32 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $13 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $2 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $7 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $6 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 51¢ $27 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $29 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $33 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $33 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $36 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $36 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $34 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $32 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $11 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 31d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $14 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 85¢ $32 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 88¢ $33 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $37 32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $39 32d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 34d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.56 · official $32.56 (match) · 119 history records