Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:21:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc920…3f16 world 28 markets active 2d ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-11%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$3
sports 14% $0
other 11% $0
tech 9% $0
crypto 7% −$3
politics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 28 -10.1% -18.6% 46% 11% -21.1%
≤90d 28 -10.1% -18.6% 46% 11% -21.1%
all 28 -10.1% -18.6% 46% 11% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 11% -21.1%
10% -26.4% 0% -28.7%
15% -33.5% 0% -35.6%
20% -40.0% 0% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage24d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 03 $1 $0 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $1 $0 -46%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? May 30 $1 $0 +9%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +13%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +7%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $2 $0 -0%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $8 −$1 -11%
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? May 28 $3 −$2 -68%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 28 $1 $0 -13%
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -16%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $1 $0 +9%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $1 $0 +1%
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $1 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 25 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $1 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 24 $1 $0 +16%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 97¢ $1 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 6d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? SELL No 63¢ $1 13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 80¢ $1 13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $1 15d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 93¢ $1 15d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY No 65¢ $1 16d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 90¢ $1 16d
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 16d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 100¢ $1 16d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 98¢ $1 16d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 22¢ $1 16d
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 17d
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? SELL Yes 63¢ $1 17d
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 41¢ $1 18d
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 18d
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 19d
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $1 19d
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 19d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 19d
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 20d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? SELL No 19¢ $1 20d
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 20d
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records