Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc918…46c4 other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$16
politics 28% −$11
sports 14% −$51
crypto 4% −$1
world 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 81 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 125 -2.5% -11.8% 6% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -9.8%
10% -20.2% 2% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage130d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $155 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $187 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $160 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $163 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $218 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $389 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $200 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $191 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $156 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $221 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $165 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $678 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $412 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $193 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 14 $203 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $216 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $222 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $172 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $208 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $194 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $246 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $436 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $258 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $220 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $268 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $395 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $262 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $487 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $235 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $203 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $514 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $206 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $275 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $242 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 4h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 16h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $33 16h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 18h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 36h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 41h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $155 21d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $155 24d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $187 24d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $187 25d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $160 26d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $160 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $163 26d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $163 26d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $218 26d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $218 27d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $164 27d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $164 28d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $200 28d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $200 29d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $191 29d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $191 29d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $159 30d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $159 30d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $199 31d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $199 32d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $156 33d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $156 33d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.99 · official $30.99 (match) · 360 history records