Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:48:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C9 0xc910…4eba other 12 markets active 7h ago coverage 34d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-5%) realized −$40 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$10
sports 6% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-47.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -41.4% -47.0% 50% 50% -48.0%
≤30d 2 -41.4% -47.0% 50% 50% -48.0%
≤90d 2 -41.4% -47.0% 50% 50% -48.0%
all 2 -41.4% -47.0% 50% 50% -48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.0% 50% -48.0%
10% -52.1% 0% -53.0%
15% -56.7% 0% -57.5%
20% -61.0% 0% -61.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$50 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$692
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)2 / 12
History coverage34d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $146 $153 +$7 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $85 $128 +$42 (+50%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $123 $105 −$18 (-15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $90 $93 +$3 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $71 $67 −$4 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $67 $43 −$24 (-35%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $48 +$8 +17%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $19 6h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 6h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $41 7h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 7h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 7h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 7h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 14h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 14h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 85¢ $48 28h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 7d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 7d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $14 34d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 34d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 34d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 34d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $24 34d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 34d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 34d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 34d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 34d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 34d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 34d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 34d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 34d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $691.88 · official $692.66 (match) · 71 history records