Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc910…8bbc sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,248 (+9%) realized +$1,418 · open −$170
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%31W / 28L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$276
7 days+$795
14 days+$564
30 days+$1,129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$958
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +12.6% +1.9% 64% 64% +2.9%
≤30d 59 +9.8% -0.7% 53% 51% -1.6%
≤90d 59 +9.8% -0.7% 53% 51% -1.6%
all 59 +9.8% -0.7% 53% 51% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 51% -1.6%
10% -10.2% 51% -11.0%
15% -18.9% 46% -19.6%
20% -26.8% 37% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$169 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized+$1,418
Unrealized−$170
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses31 / 28
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions3
Markets (closed)59 / 62
History coverage21d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 30¢ 30¢ $244 $252 +$8 (+3%)
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) KRÜ Blaze 23¢ 16¢ $77 $54 −$23 (-30%)
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Game Master 35¢ 6¢ $190 $35 −$155 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $106 +$61 +57%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $173 −$170 -98%
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $228 +$137 +60%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $411 +$448 +109%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $203 +$181 +89%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $180 +$68 +38%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 14 $224 −$220 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $103 −$101 -98%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,290 −$209 -16%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $148 +$156 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $334 +$235 +70%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 +$32 +32%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $219 −$215 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs BetBoom Team (+3.5) Jun 11 $632 +$435 +69%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $263 +$174 +66%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $104 +$47 +46%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $203 +$273 +134%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $101 +$80 +79%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $428 −$420 -98%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $101 +$40 +40%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 09 $528 +$220 +42%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 09 $187 +$49 +26%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $560 −$93 -17%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $95 +$205 +216%
Counter-Strike: Abyssal vs Ding Cuts (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Grou Jun 08 $233 −$47 -20%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO1) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 08 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 08 $309 −$305 -99%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 07 $102 +$221 +216%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $381 +$409 +107%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $252 −$247 -98%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: UNiTY esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $204 +$479 +234%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $126 +$56 +45%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $103 −$100 -98%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 06 $188 +$175 +93%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $92 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $101 +$23 +23%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $298 −$293 -98%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 05 $391 −$386 -99%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $203 +$142 +70%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $199 −$197 -99%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs Entropy - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $98 −$96 -98%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $301 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Jun 03 $129 +$135 +105%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $203 −$200 -98%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $102 +$123 +121%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoff Jun 03 $89 −$88 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $173 +$167 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner BUY Game Master 35¢ $194 43m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 30¢ $191 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 29¢ $58 1h
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY KRÜ Blaze 23¢ $79 2h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $106 18h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 49¢ $173 20h
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) BUY Grey Trac 45¢ $203 21h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World SELL InterActive Philippines 99¢ $365 23h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 61¢ $228 24h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $860 40h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 47¢ $411 45h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner SELL HOTU 100¢ $384 2d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY HOTU 52¢ $203 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner SELL Virtus.pro 99¢ $248 2d
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) BUY UCAM Esports Club 46¢ $224 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 21¢ $38 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 71¢ $180 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 48¢ $62 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 46¢ $41 2d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series SELL Virtus.pro 49¢ $304 4d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series BUY Virtus.pro 23¢ $148 4d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 59¢ $392 4d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 59¢ $175 4d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 59¢ $216 4d
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) BUY INOX Division 59¢ $507 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner SELL KOLESIE 99¢ $133 5d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 Ares 42¢ $219 5d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 75¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 58¢ $334 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $437 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $340.67 · official $340.67 (match) · 124 history records