Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:17:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C9 0xc909…1ab1 sports 335 markets active 0h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,049 (-3%) realized −$1,049 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate66%222W / 113L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$364
14 days+$335
30 days+$335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$1,921
other 37% +$730
crypto 3% +$26
politics 0% −$5
world 0% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -15.3% -23.3% 63% 42% -4.5%
≤30d 36 -10.3% -18.8% 61% 50% -5.4%
≤90d 36 -10.3% -18.8% 61% 50% -5.4%
all 335 -9.0% -17.6% 66% 43% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 43% -12.7%
10% -25.5% 29% -21.0%
15% -32.7% 22% -28.6%
20% -39.3% 13% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$54 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,049
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses222 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)335 / 335
History coverage261d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 335 Trades
no open positions (106 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $98 +$14 +14%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $58 +$23 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $901 +$90 +10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $953 +$3 +0%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,016 +$137 +7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $790 +$150 +19%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $49 +$2 +4%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $123 +$168 +137%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 23 $598 $0 +0%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,240 −$148 -12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $688 +$89 +13%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $102 −$21 -21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $127 −$21 -17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $60 +$8 +13%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $12 +$3 +28%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 +$4 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $115 −$1 -1%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $26 +$4 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $34 +$26 +75%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $95 −$34 -36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $11 −$3 -26%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$3 +16%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $11 +$6 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $27 +$13 +47%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 +$25 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $450 +$50 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $38 +$47 +122%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $322 −$120 -37%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $62 −$62 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jan 17 $18 +$6 +36%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $310 −$310 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) Jan 17 $333 +$18 +5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 17 $348 −$348 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) Jan 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-16? Jan 17 $488 +$262 +54%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-01-15? Jan 16 $350 +$150 +43%
Raptors vs. Pacers Jan 15 $205 +$155 +75%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) Jan 14 $134 +$79 +59%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jan 14 $128 −$128 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) Jan 14 $790 −$639 -81%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-01-13? Jan 13 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 57¢ $57 9m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 55¢ $55 16m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $48 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $46 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $991 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 90¢ $901 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $15 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $58 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 50¢ $50 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 96¢ $956 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $708 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $99 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $20 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $77 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $49 13h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $12 23h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $23 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 93¢ $225 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 93¢ $109 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 93¢ $967 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 83¢ $584 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 83¢ $464 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 83¢ $5 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 83¢ $5 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 83¢ $5 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 83¢ $102 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 85¢ $630 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1053 history records