Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:51:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc908…6321 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$180 (-32%) realized −$165 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$14
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$23
politics 21% −$68
tech 5% +$2
other 4% $0
finance 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -11.5% -19.9% 25% 0% -24.3%
≤30d 35 -4.6% -13.7% 54% 20% -25.4%
≤90d 36 -6.5% -15.4% 53% 19% -25.6%
all 36 -6.5% -15.4% 53% 19% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 19% -25.6%
10% -23.5% 6% -32.7%
15% -30.9% 0% -39.2%
20% -37.7% 0% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$165
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage32d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No $20 $5 −$15 (-77%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 76¢ 73¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? Up 52¢ 58¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Jun 17 $1 $0 -5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $4 −$2 -34%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $13 −$12 -93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $3 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $4 $0 +3%
Will Alex Zdan be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 03 $1 $0 +5%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 02 $110 −$66 -60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $21 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $64 +$6 +9%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun May 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 29 $3 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $37 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $11 −$1 -7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? May 28 $2 $0 -14%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +8%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 26 $14 +$2 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $4 +$1 +12%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +2%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? May 26 $2 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 26 $2 $0 +10%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $2 $0 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 25 $7 $0 +3%
Will DISY win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 24 $2 $0 +22%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22? May 23 $6 $0 +5%
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? May 20 $2 $0 -1%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +14%
Will the White House Press Secretary say "President" 30+ times during May 19 $1 $0 +12%
Will Trump say "China" this week? May 19 $3 $0 +15%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -15%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 18 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 17 $2 −$1 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 76¢ $5 35m
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 54¢ $2 1h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? SELL Up 85¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 1h
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $3 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $3 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $4 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $1 12h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? BUY Up 88¢ $1 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $1 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $1 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $5 20h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 70¢ $5 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $1 21h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap SELL Yes 70¢ $2 21h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 72¢ $7 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $4 44h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 98¢ $2 46h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $4 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 93¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $0 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.87 · official $13.88 (match) · 158 history records