Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C9 0xc904…1e9a sports 1112 markets active 5d ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,428 (+10%) realized +$5,428 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%639W / 473L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$195
30 days−$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$3,122
sports 16% +$1,368
politics 3% −$73
world 1% +$25
tech 1% −$82
finance 0% −$27
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% +$12
economics 0% +$22
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -18.9% -26.6% 55% 53% -15.2%
≤30d 408 -19.2% -26.9% 47% 36% -16.9%
≤90d 660 -8.6% -17.3% 46% 34% -11.7%
all 1112 +1.9% -7.8% 57% 44% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 44% -2.1%
10% -16.6% 23% -11.5%
15% -24.7% 19% -20.0%
20% -32.1% 15% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$16 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$5,428
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses639 / 473
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1112 / 1112
History coverage212d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1112 Trades
no open positions (117 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $8 +$2 +26%
Game Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs My Queen (+1.5) Jun 13 $7 +$3 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O Jun 13 $9 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 +$3 +48%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $7 +$3 +48%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality - Gam Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - Nort Jun 11 $4 +$6 +165%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$4 +54%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +8%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$2 +18%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +39%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +39%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +39%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +39%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +21%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $235 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +32%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +30%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Map Handicap: OXUJI (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $8 +$2 +32%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $8 +$2 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs KOLESIE (+3.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID - Game 4 Winne Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 2¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 79¢ $8 4d
Game Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs My Queen (+1.5) BUY TYLOO 67¢ $7 5d
Dota 2: TeamDk vs Modo Serio (BO3) - The International South America O BUY TeamDk 86¢ $9 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY WLGaming Esports 8¢ $1 5d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anubis Gaming 37¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 37¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY GenOne 59¢ $7 5d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 86¢ $9 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 37¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $7 5d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Bigetron by Vitality - Gam BUY Bigetron by Vitality 51¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $7 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $4 5d
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 67¢ $7 5d
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $6 6d
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 35¢ $4 6d
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs PCIFIC (+1.5) BUY PCIFIC 37¢ $4 6d
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner BUY HMBLE 37¢ $4 6d
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 1 Winner BUY HMBLE 37¢ $4 6d
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - Nort BUY For Fun Esports 37¢ $4 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 37¢ $4 6d
Map Handicap: OXUJI (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) BUY Bebop 52¢ $5 6d
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 87¢ $9 6d
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 64¢ $7 6d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 11? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 6d
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 84¢ $9 6d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $380 on June 11? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 75¢ $8 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.99 · official $4.99 (match) · 3227 history records