Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C8 0xc8fe…eb9b other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-9%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -89% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -90% what you keep after slip
Net edge-90%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-90.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -89.1% -90.1% 0% 0% -74.1%
≤30d 3 -89.1% -90.1% 0% 0% -74.1%
≤90d 3 -89.1% -90.1% 0% 0% -74.1%
all 3 -89.1% -90.1% 0% 0% -74.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -90.1% 0% -74.1%
10% -91.1% 0% -76.6%
15% -91.9% 0% -78.9%
20% -92.7% 0% -80.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -89% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$28 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt leading at halftime? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$70 -67%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $23 49m
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 54m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $34 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $103 11h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.81 · official $32.81 (match) · 6 history records