Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:32:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C8 0xc8fd…6b3a politics 208 markets active 4h ago coverage 512d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,649 (+12%) realized +$9,582 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%91W / 108L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$391per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,035now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$599
7 days+$933
14 days+$1,227
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$7,353
other 27% +$242
world 16% −$623
sports 10% +$2,275
crypto 4% +$273
economics 3% −$501
culture 2% +$80
tech 1% +$212
finance 1% +$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +69.7% +53.6% 50% 50% +19.7%
≤30d 18 +34.0% +21.2% 33% 33% -8.3%
≤90d 57 +10.9% +0.3% 37% 35% +1.8%
all 199 +5.5% -4.6% 46% 43% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 43% +1.8%
10% -13.7% 34% -8.0%
15% -22.0% 30% -16.9%
20% -29.7% 23% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$154 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

512d coverage
Net worth$2,035
Realized+$9,582
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses91 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions9
Markets (closed)199 / 208
History coverage512d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 52¢ 56¢ $520 $565 +$45 (+9%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $413 $406 −$7 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $323 $354 +$31 (+10%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Yes 31¢ 21¢ $382 $266 −$117 (-31%)
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina governor race in 2026? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $120 $155 +$35 (+29%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $79 $150 +$71 (+90%)
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $71 $71 +$0 (+0%)
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $37 $47 +$10 (+26%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $231 +$169 +73%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $187 +$213 +114%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $239 −$219 -92%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $111 +$489 +442%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $508 −$53 -10%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 23 $1,035 −$91 -9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $417 +$583 +140%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $161 −$158 -98%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $104 −$30 -29%
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? Jun 16 $153 −$134 -87%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $254 −$38 -15%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $105 +$495 +474%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $272 +$37 +14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $155 −$18 -11%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $244 −$150 -62%
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? Jun 08 $406 −$119 -29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $219 −$216 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 28 $694 −$687 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $50 −$50 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $229 +$271 +118%
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? May 23 $29 −$16 -56%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $87 −$82 -94%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $33 −$32 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $218 −$70 -32%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $220 +$180 +82%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $120 +$207 +172%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $320 +$75 +23%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $173 +$69 +40%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $580 +$478 +82%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 19 $120 −$31 -26%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 19 $470 −$198 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 19 $102 −$96 -94%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom May 19 $5 −$2 -43%
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 17 $35 +$10 +28%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $451 −$335 -74%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $111 −$37 -33%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 16 $278 −$273 -98%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 15 $120 +$280 +232%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 14 $234 +$266 +114%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 13 $88 −$47 -53%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 12 $1,322 +$1,276 +96%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $195 +$805 +414%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 06 $823 +$401 +49%
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? May 04 $363 −$21 -6%
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? May 01 $220 −$220 -100%
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $330 −$330 -100%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $276 −$57 -21%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 15 $285 −$125 -44%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 15 $242 −$164 -68%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $173 −$167 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 57¢ $231 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 5¢ $19 17h
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 20h
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 23h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $95 26h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 26h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 26h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $69 26h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 46¢ $187 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 59¢ $239 30h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $195 30h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 61¢ $93 30h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 30h
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 58¢ $89 30h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 32¢ $455 39h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 34¢ $508 2d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 42¢ $472 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 18¢ $111 2d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 62¢ $104 2d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 61¢ $93 2d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $417 2d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 42¢ $472 2d
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $161 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $73 8d
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $19 8d
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $68 8d
Will the Democrats win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,034.77 · official $2,034.87 (match) · 1109 history records